Australian Economy

Australia is set to be the last country to escape inflation

The Economist’s measure of “inflation dispersion” provides similar clues. This measures the share of consumer prices that are rising by more than 2 per cent year-on-year. Australia tops the rankings here. By contrast, most Japanese prices are rising by less than 2 per cent.

Immigration could also help explain the divide. The rich world has experienced an immigration boom, with a large share of the new arrivals going to English-speaking countries. Last year Australia, Britain and Canada broke net migration records.

Inflation entrenchment in ten rich countries.  The Economist

The large rise in population has supported demand. In the past year the cost of renting a flat in the Anglosphere has risen by 8 per cent, compared with 5 per cent elsewhere. The effects on labour markets are less clear. America’s unit labour costs, which measure how much firms pay workers to produce a unit of output, are not rising. But Canada’s are growing strongly.

History may also play a role in explaining the Anglosphere’s entrenched inflation. During the 2010s Southern Europe and much of rich Asia saw few price rises. Inflation in the Anglosphere was firmer. Owing to these different experiences, people’s current beliefs about future inflation may also differ.

Data coming out of America are worrying. The public believes prices will rise by 5.3 per cent over the next 12 months, more than in any other country in our ranking. Americans also often search on Google for inflation-related topics, suggesting that the cost of living is still on their minds.

Across the Anglosphere the threat of continued high inflation—or even a second wave of price rises—has not gone away.

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