Commodity Roundup: ING says gold to avg. $2,081/oz in 2024; oil set for a weekly gain

March 1, 2024

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Gold ingots and coins close up — Anthony Bradshaw

Gold prices inched higher at the start of the month of Friday, and were set for a second-consecutive week of gains, as gold bugs hoped for the possibility of a June rate cut after data showed that core-PCE slowed annually.

ING expects gold prices to trade higher this year as safe-haven demand continues to be supportive amid geopolitical uncertainty with ongoing wars and the upcoming US election. Forecasts prices to average $2,150/oz in the fourth quarter and $2,081/oz in 2024, even as investment demand for gold is yet to rebound.

Spot gold (XAUUSD:CUR) was up +0.57% at $2,054.86 an ounce by 6 am ET, and gained 0.5% so far, as traders also looked ahead to a slew of speeches by U.S. Fed officials. Lower interest rates boost the appeal of non-yielding bullion.

In the physical market, gold consumption during the longer-than-usual 2024 Chinese New Year’s holiday was robust, based on preliminary data, the World Gold Council said, adding that indications for 2024 are that gold jewellery demand will be stable, albeit rising at a slower pace than 2023 mainly due to a deceleration in economic growth. Bar and coin sales should stay strong, but are unlikely to replicate 2023’s significant growth, WGC added.

Turning to base metals, copper prices ticked lower and were set for a weekly fall, after data showed, China’s manufacturing activity in February shrank for a fifth straight month. Prices of LME aluminum, zinc and tin also moved lower.

Oil prices rose, on the other hand, and were headed for weekly gains. Wood Mackenzie said Thursday in a forecast close to OPEC’s recent estimate, global oil demand will rise by 1.9M bbl/day this year, with the Asia-Pacific region accounting for more than 60% of the total.

Woodmac’s VP of oils research Alan Gelder predicted China and India will account for 496K bbl/day and 161K bbl/day of the growth, respectively, while Asia-Pacific countries excluding China and India will account for 542K bbl/day of the increased demand.

A Reuters survey showed the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped 26.42 million barrels per day (bpd) in February, up 90,000 bpd from January.

Elsewhere, among agriculture commodities, soybean and cocoa prices rose, while wheat futures fell.