Currencies

Currencies mixed as trading resumes after holiday — TradingView News

Central European currencies were mixed against a backdrop of a broadly firmer dollar on Tuesday as investors returned from the Easter holiday and digested regional manufacturing surveys.

Manufacturing downturns in the Czech Republic and Poland eased in March, with the Czech purchasing managers’ index pushing to its highest since August 2022, while Hungary’s survey pointed to continued expansion.

At 0818 GMT Hungary’s forint EURHUF and the Czech crown EURCZK eased versus the euro by 0.04% and 0.1% respectively.

The U.S. dollar hovered near a 4-1/2-month peak against major peers as traders rushed to push back bets for the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate cut this year.

A stronger dollar is negative for emerging market currencies as it lowers the premium attached to holding riskier assets.

A trader in Budapest said the forint is expected to trade sideways this week, remaining in the range of 393-397, with eyes on the U.S. non-farm payroll data scheduled to be published on Friday.

The Polish zloty EURPLN was the only gainer in the region, firming 0.22% ahead of a central bank rate decision and a press conference scheduled for the second half of the week.

“The NBP (National Bank of Poland) should maintain its hawkish bias at least for now, and in turn support PLN later this week,” ING said in a note.

Polish year-on-year inflation returned to its lowest level in five years at 1.9% in March, data published on Friday showed, in a sharp downward surprise.

“This should support further receiving flow in the rates space, which may temporarily undermine PLN and delay our expected return to 4.290 EUR/PLN,” ING added.

CEE MARKETS

SNAPSHOT

AT 1018 CET

CURRENCIES

Latest

Previous

Daily

Change

bid

close

change

in 2024

EURCZK=

Czech crown

EURCZK

25.2950

25.2700

-0.10%

-2.35%

EURHUF=

Hungary forint

EURHUF

395.0500

394.9000

-0.04%

-3.00%

EURPLN=

Polish zloty

EURPLN

4.2885

4.2980

+0.22%

+1.31%

EURRON=

Romanian leu

EURRON

4.9708

4.9700

-0.02%

+0.07%

EURRSD=

Serbian dinar

EURRSD

117.0400

117.1200

+0.07%

+0.18%

Note: daily change

calculated from

1800 CET

Latest

Previous

Daily

Change

close

change

in 2024

.PX

Prague

(.PX)

1529.68

1515.1600

+0.96%

+8.18%

.BUX

Budapest

BUX

65867.77

65384.60

+0.74%

+8.66%

.WIG20

Warsaw

GPW

2470.43

2436.05

+1.41%

+5.44%

.BETI

Bucharest

BET

17048.63

17027.05

+0.13%

+10.91%

Spread

Daily

vs Bund

change in

Czech Republic

spread

CZ2YT=RR

2-year

(CZ2YT=RR)

3.8170

0.0740

+101bps

+10bps

CZ5YT=RR

5-year

(CZ5YT=RR)

3.8090

0.0250

+148bps

+1bps

CZ10YT=RR

10-year

(CZ10YT=RR)

3.9230

0.0000

+159bps

-4bps

Poland

PL2YT=RR

2-year

(PL2YT=RR)

5.1750

0.0150

+237bps

+4bps

PL5YT=RR

5-year

(PL5YT=RR)

5.3300

-0.0210

+300bps

-4bps

PL10YT=RR

10-year

(PL10YT=RR)

5.4240

-0.0190

+309bps

-6bps

FORWARD

3×6

6×9

9×12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

(CZKFRA) (PRIBOR=)

4.61

3.83

3.48

5.61

Hungary

(HUFFRA) (BUBOR=)

7.30

6.95

6.85

7.83

Poland

(PLNFRA) (WIBOR=)

5.82

5.68

5.35

5.88

Note: FRA quotes

are for ask prices

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