Investing in Pan American Silver (TSE:PAAS) five years ago would have delivered you a 107% gain

Generally speaking the aim of active stock picking is to find companies that provide returns that are superior to the market average. Buying under-rated businesses is one path to excess returns. For example, long term Pan American Silver Corp. (TSE:PAAS) shareholders have enjoyed a 90% share price rise over the last half decade, well in excess of the market return of around 40% (not including dividends). However, more recent returns haven’t been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 46% in the last year, including dividends.

Now it’s worth having a look at the company’s fundamentals too, because that will help us determine if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.

Check out our latest analysis for Pan American Silver

Given that Pan American Silver didn’t make a profit in the last twelve months, we’ll focus on revenue growth to form a quick view of its business development. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually desire strong revenue growth. That’s because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.

For the last half decade, Pan American Silver can boast revenue growth at a rate of 14% per year. That’s a fairly respectable growth rate. Revenue has been growing at a reasonable clip, so it’s debatable whether the share price growth of 14% full reflects the underlying business growth. The key question is whether revenue growth will slow down, and if so, how quickly. There’s no doubt that it can be difficult to value pre-profit companies.

The company’s revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on Pan American Silver

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It’s fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Pan American Silver the TSR over the last 5 years was 107%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

It’s good to see that Pan American Silver has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 46% in the last twelve months. And that does include the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 16%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. It’s always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Pan American Silver better, we need to consider many other factors. Even so, be aware that Pan American Silver is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about…

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of undervalued small cap companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Canadian exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.