Is Norfolk Southern (NYSE:NSC) A Risky Investment?

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, ‘The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.’ So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We can see that Norfolk Southern Corporation (NYSE:NSC) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

When Is Debt Dangerous?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can’t easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

See our latest analysis for Norfolk Southern

What Is Norfolk Southern’s Net Debt?

As you can see below, at the end of March 2024, Norfolk Southern had US$18.1b of debt, up from US$15.5b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, it also had US$652.0m in cash, and so its net debt is US$17.5b.

A Look At Norfolk Southern’s Liabilities

According to the last reported balance sheet, Norfolk Southern had liabilities of US$3.45b due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$26.1b due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of US$652.0m and US$1.20b worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling US$27.7b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

This deficit isn’t so bad because Norfolk Southern is worth a massive US$48.2b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

Norfolk Southern has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 3.6 and its EBIT covered its interest expense 4.8 times. Taken together this implies that, while we wouldn’t want to see debt levels rise, we think it can handle its current leverage. Shareholders should be aware that Norfolk Southern’s EBIT was down 22% last year. If that earnings trend continues then paying off its debt will be about as easy as herding cats on to a roller coaster. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Norfolk Southern can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you’re focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. In the last three years, Norfolk Southern’s free cash flow amounted to 30% of its EBIT, less than we’d expect. That’s not great, when it comes to paying down debt.

Our View

We’d go so far as to say Norfolk Southern’s EBIT growth rate was disappointing. Having said that, its ability to cover its interest expense with its EBIT isn’t such a worry. Looking at the bigger picture, it seems clear to us that Norfolk Southern’s use of debt is creating risks for the company. If everything goes well that may pay off but the downside of this debt is a greater risk of permanent losses. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet – far from it. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we’ve spotted 4 warning signs for Norfolk Southern (of which 1 shouldn’t be ignored!) you should know about.

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don’t even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com