Shares

Don’t let the ‘bear market house of mirrors’ fool you, Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson warns of the stock market

By Barbara Kollmeyer

Critical information for the U.S. trading day

Stock futures are treading water ahead of an important week for earnings, with the spotlight on updates from the tech space, which has been laying off thousands of workers.

Among those not expecting good news in the earnings pipeline is Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson, who in our call of the day says investors need to beware of the “bear market hall of mirrors.”

A fairly upbeat start for stocks to the year — the S&P 500 is up over 3% this year, and the beaten-down Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK) has jumped 17% — is not tempting him. “Suffice it to say, we’re not biting on this recent rally because our work and process are so convincingly bearish on earnings,” said Wilson.

He notes how the early 2023 rally has been led by “low-quality and heavily shorted stocks” and a strong shift to cyclicals versus defensives. “This cyclical rotation in particular is convincing investors that they are missing the bottom and must reposition,” he told clients in a Sunday note.

But he warns that bear markets can fool lots of investors before all is said and done, and they must keep trusting their own processes and ignore the noise. “The final stages of the bear market are always the trickiest and we have been on high alert for such head fakes, like the rally from October to December we anticipated and traded,” Wilson said.

After a “very challenging 2022, many investors are still bearish fundamentally, but question whether negative fundamentals have already been priced into stocks,” he says. “Our view has not changed as we expect the path of earnings in the U.S. to disappoint both consensus expectations and current valuations.”

One area of concern for him is that the gap between the bank’s earnings outlook and forward estimates is “as wide as it’s ever been. The last two times our model was this far below consensus the S&P 500 fell by 34% and 49%,” he said.

What Wilson expects is an “imminent” earnings recession, and with that margin erosion. That will come as costs have been rising faster than sales, and revenue has been unexpectedly slowing down for companies, he said.

And while we aren’t officially in a recession, the fallout for companies is already there — falling sales driving inventory bloat and less productive head count.

Saying all that, Wilson says they “welcome the sentiment and positioning over the past few weeks as a necessary condition for the last stage of this bear market to play out.”

The chief equity strategist, who correctly predicted the direction of the 2022 stock-market selloff, warned at the start of the year that a recession shock this year could drive another 22% drop for markets. When it comes to Wall Street’s predictions for the S&P 500 this year, Wilson is at the lower end with a call for the index to finish at 3,900.

U.S. Treasurys at ‘critical point’: Stocks, bonds correlation shifts as fixed-income market flashes recession warning

The markets

Stock futures are leaning south, while there’s little action forTreasury bonds either, but weakness for the dollar . Much of Asia is shut — China markets will be closed all week for the Lunar New Year’s holidays. The Nikkei 225 index gained.

Bitcoin topped $23,000 over the weekend, a level it hasn’t seen since September despite last week’s Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing by Genesis Global Capital.

The buzz

Evoquoa stock (AQUA) is up 17% in premarket trading after the water treatment company received a $7.5 billion offer from rival Xylem (XYL), whose shares are down 9.2%.

Get ready for some big tech names to report this week — Microsoft (MSFT), 3M (MMM)and Texas Instruments on Tuesday, Tesla (TSLA) and IBM (IBM) on Wednesday and Intel (INTC) on Thursday. GE (GE), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), 3M (MMM), Boeing (BA), McDonald’s (MCD), Visa (V), Chevron (CVX) and AmEx (AXP) will also report.

Earnings Watch:Microsoft, Tesla and Intel are about to face the doubters

Spotify Technology (SPOT) added to a wave of tech layoffs, with the music streamer announcing plans to cut 6% of its workforce.

And: Big Tech layoffs are not as big as they appear at first glance

Leading economic indicators are due at 10 a.m.

Read:A recession is coming, economists say. Some even think it’s already here

Ken Griffin’s U.S. hedge fund Citadel made a record $16 billion last year (post fees) last year, according to this estimate.

Best of the web

Nearly wealthy enough to buy the White House. That’s incoming Biden chief of staff Jeffrey Zients

A 70% tax on the wealthy should even up the inequality gap, says Nobel-prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz

Pandemic-era free lunches are ending for many families, who still desperately need them

Brazil and Argentina are reportedly laying the groundwork for a common currency (subscription required)

The chart

“An astounding 40% of Russell 2000 companies were unprofitable last year. You have to wonder what’s going to happen to these companies in a world where higher interest rates may mean greater rationing of capital vs the freely and cheaply available flood of funding of most of the past decade,” says Callum Thomas, head of research at Topdown Charts, providing the below chart from @MichealAArouet

“Throw in a possible global recession and things could get ugly. No wonder fund managers are rotating out of U.S. equities,” he said, pointing to this Bank of America chart:

The tickers

These were the top-searched tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m. Eastern:

Ticker  Security name 
TSLA    Tesla 
BBBY    Bed Bath & Beyond 
GME     GameStop 
GNS     Genius Group 
HLBZ    Helbiz 
AMC     AMC Entertainment 
MULN    Mullen Automotive 
AAPL    Apple 
NIO     NIO 
APE     AMC Entertainment Holdings preferred shares 

Random reads

“Mattress Mack” lost $2 million on the Dallas Cowboys and that’s not even his biggest bet

Senior aide to Japan’s prime minister apologies for sticking his hands in his pockets during a DC trip, after getting told off by his mom.

Hot dog crime at the Australian Open

Need to Know starts early and is updated until the opening bell, but sign up here to get it delivered once to your email box. The emailed version will be sent out at about 7:30 a.m. Eastern.

Listen to the Best New Ideas in Money podcast with MarketWatch reporter Charles Passy and economist Stephanie Kelton.

-Barbara Kollmeyer

 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

01-23-23 0720ET

Copyright (c) 2023 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Source link

Related Articles

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Back to top button
SUBSCRIBE TO OUR NEWSLETTER

Get our latest downloads and information first. Complete the form below to subscribe to our weekly newsletter.