Commodities

What’s the global dairy commodity outlook? Maxum Foods forecasts constrained milk output

Dairy commodity prices in the EU ‘remain firm after the spring milk flush’, while weaker demand for dairy ingredients in China due to the strict COVID lockdowns has softened Oceania milk powder and fat prices, according to Edwin Lloyd, Executive General Manager – Foods, at New Zealand dairy ingredient supplier Maxum Foods.

Higher costs are expected to shape the next six months, Lloyd said in a global dairy commodity update for June 2022. “Supply-side constraints will remain a fixture in the outlook for at least the next half year as the effects of the Ukraine war will continue to drive high input costs (corn, grain and fertilizer),”​ he wrote.

Some of this pressure is being alleviated as prices continue to rise in Europe, while energy prices have receded in ‘several regions as countries comply with Russia’s requirements’ to improve supplies but remain ‘at extremes’ in others.

Constrained milk supply expected

“The weather outlook is not offering many prospects to improve milk supply, as Europe (already basking in a record hot spring) is forecast to have another warmer, drier summer, while the damage to pastures due to the poor finish to the NZ season may weaken the start of season in some key regions,”​ the dairy expert noted.

According to data released by the European Commission, the average farm gate milk prices in April 2022 was 46.0 c/kg, up +5.7% compared to March 2022 and +29% compared to April 2021. The EC said the estimated price for May 2022 is 47.4 c/kg, an increase of +3%. 

In the US, the fundamentals also suggest a ‘tighter’ dairy market as milk output is constrained by ‘weaker margins, sluggish recovery in the dairy herd and processor supply management’.

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