BTC-Spot ETF Inflows and Trading Volumes in Focus

Bitcoin Falls Short of $42,000 for the First Time Since December 3, 2023

BTC rose by 0.13% on Saturday. Following a 0.85% gain on Friday, BTC ended the day at $41,740. Significantly, BTC fell short of the $42,000 handle for the first time since December 3, 2023.

On Saturday, BTC-spot ETF-related updates warranted investor attention. Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst Eric Balchunas shared the latest updates on inflows/outflows, saying,

“LATEST: Despite GBTC seeing a -$590m outflow gash Friday, The Nine overwhelmed it w/ +$623m (3rd best day), IBIT & FBTC both >$200m while BTCO & HODL had their best hauls to date. TOT NET FLOWS stand at +$1.2b as Nine’s aum hit $4b vs GBTC’s -$2.8b, upping aum share to 14%.”

Significantly, Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust (FBTC) outmuscled iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) for the second consecutive day. FBTC recorded net BTC inflows of $222.3 million vs. IBIT net BTC inflows of $201.5 million.

BTC Spot ETF Flows 210124

The net inflows aligned with a rebound in trading volumes. FBTC trading volumes topped the table for the first time on day six of trading.

BTC-spot ETF Trading Volumes

Balchunas also discussed GBTC outflows, saying,

“Note: the more we think about it and talk to ppl, prob only a small minority of the GBTC outflows are likely going to the Nine right now as much of it was FTX and traders who arb-ed discount. Also, the proportionality of the flows to the size of the firm is almost perfect, indicating flows due to reach/distribution/hustle.”

Responding to a post from a crypto community member, Balchunas elaborated on flows between GBTC and the Nine skewing the numbers, saying,

“We’ll never totally know, imposs data to get, but through anecdotal inquiries, we think maybe 10% of the GBTC outflows moved to one of the Nine. Smaller than ppl think IMO.”

10% flows into one of the Nine suggested that outflows have no linkage to GBTC fees. GBTC charges a fee of 1.5%, significantly higher than the Nine.

BTC-spot ETF Fees – Source Bloomberg

Bitcoin Fear & Greed Moves into the Greed Zone

The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index increased from 52 to 56 on Sunday. Significantly, the Index returned to the Greed zone, suggesting improving investor sentiment.

BTC-spot ETF-related news and positive Friday sessions for the US equity markets likely contributed. However, SEC activity remains a bugbear for crypto investors. The outcome of SEC cases against Coinbase and Ripple could materially influence the US crypto market.

BTC Fear and Greed Index 210124

Elsewhere, investors continued to react to the SEC delaying the decision on the Fidelity application for an ETH-spot ETF. ETH fell by 0.79% on Saturday, bucking the broader crypto market trend. The total crypto market cap increased 0.11% to $1,597 billion.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC hovered below the 50-day EMA while remaining above the 200-day EMA. The EMAs sent bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price signals.

A BTC break above the 50-day EMA would give the bulls a run at the $42,968 resistance level.

On Sunday, investors must consider BTC-spot ETF-related chatter, SEC activity, and US lawmaker scrutiny.

However, a drop below the Friday low of $40,290 would support a fall toward the $39,861 support level.

The 14-Daily RSI reading, 43.49, suggests a BTC drop to the $39,861 support level before entering oversold territory.

BTCUSD 210124 Daily Chart

Ethereum Analysis

ETH sat well above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, confirming bullish price signals.

An ETH breakout from the $2,500 handle would support a move toward the $2,650 resistance level.

Investors must monitor ETH-spot ETF-related news.

However, a fall through the $2,457 support level would give the bears a run at the 50-day EMA.

The 14-period Daily RSI at 54.50 indicates an ETH return to the $2,650 resistance level before entering overbought territory.

ETHUSD 210124 Daily Chart

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