Bullish on 2024: Navigating cyclical peaks and commodities surge – Bill Baruch
(Kitco News) – In the first quarter of 2024, notable companies such as Microsoft and Visa showcased strong financial performance. Microsoft’s revenue surged by 13%, while Visa experienced a 17% increase in net income, contributing to the broader market’s positive sentiment. However, as the market transitions into the second quarter, there is a growing sense of caution regarding potential adjustments in earnings expectations. Bill Baruch, President of Blue Line Futures, commented on the recent financial performance: “We’ve had really pretty stellar earnings overall… But as we move into quarter two earnings, do any of these companies start reining in some expectations?” This observation underscores the tension between current market optimism and the cautious anticipation of future earnings adjustments while interest rates remain high.
Baruch envisioned a cyclical bull market extending into the late 2020s, albeit with expected fluctuations. He noted in a recent interview with Jeremy Szafron, Anchor at Kitco News, “Cyclically… I do believe that this is a bull market through October 2027, but there’s going to be cycle tops, and I think April-May could be something where the market cools off a bit.” In the commodities realm, he anticipates enduring strength, particularly in energy, asserting, “I do think we’re in a secular bull market of commodities… energy is to continue to do well.”
The energy sector, specifically oil, could see dramatic price shifts depending on geopolitical events, such as the Israel-Hamas conflict’s impact on the oil supply. The World Bank has warned that oil prices could surge to $150 per barrel if regional conflicts escalate, significantly affecting global supply.
To find out more on earnings adjustments, cyclical market trends, and sector-specific analysis, watching the full Kitco News interview above.
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