Oil prices next move likely dip below $80 rather than jump above $90: Macquarie By Investing.com

Investing.com — prices are likely to fall below $80 a barrel rather than break through $90 a barrel as bearish storm clouds are likely grow in the months ahead. 

“[W]e believe the odds are greater that oil falls below $80 versus consistently rising above $90 given the slow but steady march towards a cease-fire and increasingly bearish fundamentals,” Macquarie said. 

The road ahead for oil prices into the second half of the year is expected tobecome bearish, Macquarie warns, as non-OPEC supplies continue to pump more oil, OPEC+ spare barrels are likely to make an appearance, while demand is expected to improve as a “result of stubborn inflation.”

Though there could be respite for oil prices as speculation grows that OPEc may look to extend its production cuts. 

“There is growing chatter that OPEC will look to extend its current production cuts,” ANZ Research said in a note, ahead of the OPEC and its allies meeting on 1 June.

Oil prices have been on the back foot over the past month, falling by around $8 a barrel from its highest point since last October, partly driven by a “reduction in geopolitical risk premium,” Macquarie says, as bets on supply disruptions in the Middle East have cooled. 

“This reduction is largely a function of the perceived de-escalation of the situation between Israel and Iran,” it added.

The fading bullish bets on oil come just as the Energy Information Energy cut its 2024 Brent outlook to $87.79 barrel from $88.55 a barrel previously, and its WTI forecast to $83.05 per barrel from $83.78 per barrel.