- Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, Standard Chartered wrote.
- The approval of bitcoin spot ETFs should drive massive inflows and price gains.
- The SEC is expected to approve the first such ETF by this Wednesday.
The approval of bitcoin spot ETFs could send the top cryptocurrency more than 300% higher by the end of next year, Standard Chartered Head of FX Research Geoff Kendrick wrote in a Monday note.
That comes as Wall Street is waiting for the Securities and Exchange Commission to greenlight the first of these ETFs by Wednesday, the reported deadline by which the agency must make a decision.
“If ETF-related inflows materialize as we expect, we think an end-2025 level closer to USD 200,000 is possible. This assumes that between 437,000 and 1.32mn new bitcoins will be held in spot US ETFs by end-2024,” Kendrick wrote, estimating that inflows this year alone could be $50 billion-$100 billion.
If bitcoin reaches $200,000, that would represent a price surge of 344% from its current level of about $45,000.
Once up and running, these ETFs would cause demand to soar, providing enough price upside for bitcoin to potentially reach $100,000 before the end of 2024, Kendrick previously forecast. His bullish forecast also sees supply falling, given the upcoming halving cycle and token hoarding by miners.
In determining his 2025 outlook for bitcoin, Kendrick drew a parallel with the first gold spot exchange-traded product and its price impact on the yellow metal.
After SPDR Gold Shares came online in 2004, it gradually increased, multiplying more than fourfold in a seven-year span.
“We use this 4.3x increase as our base case for Bitcoin, but we expect the BTC gains to occur during a short one- to two-year period because we expect the BTC ETF market to mature more quickly,” Kendrick said.
He also noted how bitcoin’s price increased by a similar level when holdings in ETFs outside of the US jumped in 2020.
Meanwhile, any increase in demand would have a large impact on bitcoin’s price as the amount of immediately available supply is falling, Kendrick added.
“This measure is at an all-time low as a percentage of total supply in circulation,” he said. “In other words, supply is more price-inelastic than it has ever been.”