Relief rally follows week to forget

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland

The relief rally spreading through Asian markets is set to sweep into Europe at the open, with the FTSE in particular set for a 1% pop.

Neither Iran nor Israel looks interested in any further escalation in the unprecedented hostilities of last week, and investors appear eager to get back into risk, paring back holdings of safe haven assets such as bonds, gold and the dollar.

That’s not to say all has gone quiet. A U.S. base in Syria was the target of a rocket attack on Sunday, ostensibly from Iraq-based Hezbollah fighters.

And beyond the Middle East, the other weights on world stocks – which dragged them to their worst week in more than a year – still linger, namely later Fed rate cuts and caution over chip sector earnings.

Evidence of the latter was on display in Japan, with the tech-heavy Nikkei’s 0.7% rise lagging a 1.3% jump for the broader Topix.

In a relatively light week for macro data and events, the headliner is the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting on Friday, when new inflation forecasts are due, even if economists consider it too soon for another rate hike.

For the United States, the main focus is Friday’s PCE deflator, the Fed’s preferred consumer price gauge. No Fedspeak will be forthcoming, as we enter the blackout period before next week’s policy decision. But the message of late from every Fed official has been the same: no rush to cut.

There has been no end of ECB rhetoric in recent days, coalescing around a June cut.

French central bank chief Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Sunday that “barring surprises, there is no need to wait much longer” for policy easing, even amid risks from the Middle East. Following June though, reductions should be at a “pragmatic pace.”

The comments show the split emerging inside the ECB about the pace of easing. Pierre Wunsch and Madis Muller came out separately on Friday backing multiple cuts this year.

ECB President Christine Lagarde has a chance to weigh in later today when she gives a lecture at Yale.

Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:

– ECB President Christine Lagarde’s lecture at Yale

– Euro zone flash consumer confidence (April)

– SAP earnings

(Editing by Jacqueline Wong)