Stock Market Live Updates 28 February 2024

Analysis of TRAI data suggests that Bharti Hexacom is favorably placed as:

(1) its markets have historically grown 3-5 ppts faster vs. Rest of India (ROI) & their lower teledensity offers longer growth runway;

(2) it may see higher market gains given Bharti’s superior execution and VIL’s weak positioning;

(3) translation of tariff hikes into ARPU has been better here (17% ARPU Cagr vs 12% Cagr in ROI)

CLSA on Voda Idea

Sell, TP Rs 5

Board approves $2.4bn equity raise

Co has been in talks with potential investors, but fund raising is still pending

Expect financial crunch in FY26CL when annual spectrum & AGR payments will be due

Over 12M, VI has lost 120bps rev market share

Nomura on Voda Idea

Reduce, TP Rs 6.5

A change of fortunes is now on cards

VIL puts in place plans to raise up to Rs 450bn

Repair, recovery & rolling out 5G key monitorables after VIL secures funding

If VIL is able to bring in external investors, it would be a significant +ve

MS on Telecom

VIL’s BoD approved a potential fund-raise of $5.5bn, including equity/equity-linked instruments of $2.4bn.

If it closes, see current market structure continuing near term, & increasing conviction on industry being in repair phase with potential increase in tariffs

CLSA on Vedanta

Upgrade to U-P from Sell, TP raised to Rs 260 from Rs 230

Analyst day takeaways

Indicated an Ebitda target of $6bn/US$7.5bn by FY25/27 (FY24: US$5bn) through capacity expansion, backward integration & value additions (largely in aluminium, base metals & power)

With deleveraging, its capital allocation & corporate structure have been a focal point over past few years, & thus improvement in operational parameters will be key to a rerating

Jefferies on AAvas Fin

Buy, TP Rs 1900

Management meet takeaways

Mgmt indicated that multiple initiatives and completion of tech rollout should lift growth & productivity metrics.

Mgmt expects CoF to inch up in 4Q. It has hiked lending rates by 25bps w.e.f March to cushion NIMs

Focus is also on lifting mix of core lower ATS housing loans to boost yields.

Mgmt expects opex intensity to ease over next few years and lift returns.

Jefferies on Max Fin

Buy, TP Rs 1200

Max Life (81% owned by Max FS) is well-placed to deliver 17% Cagr in premium over FY24-26 as it leverages on ramp-up of agency & closer integration with Axis Bk.

Dy MD of Axis Bank now is Chairman at Max Life & 3 board members are from Axis

Clarity on norms on surrender charges are key & balanced view from regulator will likely abate concerns

See healthy VNB Cagr of 18% between FY24-26 & vals. at 1.6x FY25 P/EV are at discount to peers