2024 NFL Draft mock trade: Bills move up for new WR1; Giants plan for life after Daniel Jones
The NFL Draft will be here in two weeks, leaving us ample time to ponder, predict and scheme all the ways things might unfold come April 25.
Today, we thought we’d have a little fun, orchestrating a blockbuster trade scenario between the New York Giants, picking at No. 6, and the Buffalo Bills, picking at No. 28. Why? While the Giants could certainly use the kind of premium talent available at the top of the draft, they still have a lot of holes to fill on their roster and need multiple injections of young talent. As for the Bills, after trading Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans last week, they really need a top-tier wide receiver for quarterback Josh Allen, and they should be able to draft one at No. 6.
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Obviously, this type of trade is a long shot. In fact, it seems more likely the Giants trade up for a quarterback rather than move down — especially to the back of the first round. And the Bills would likely have more luck trying to move up into the teens to select a receiver like LSU’s Brian Thomas Jr. rather than trying to catapult inside the top 10.
But we’re trying something here, so have a little fun with us.
As we examine the merits of this trade, remember the close relationship between these two teams. Giants general manager Joe Schoen and coach Brian Daboll both came from Buffalo and are therefore very familiar with Bills GM Brandon Beane and coach Sean McDermott. If a trade of this magnitude is going to happen, these teams align as likely partners.
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Now, what would the trade look like? Funny enough, Bills beat writer Joe Buscaglia already made the Giants an offer during our most recent beat writer mock draft — credit to Joe for making this offer even before the Diggs deal — that deserves consideration. We’ll refer to it as the Julio Jones package because it is almost the exact same collection of picks the Atlanta Falcons, picking at No. 27, sent to the Cleveland Browns in 2011 for the No. 6 pick and the right to draft Jones.
So the full deal would be:
Bills receive: 2024 first-round pick (No. 6) and 2025 seventh-round pick
Giants receive: 2024 first-round pick (No. 28), 2024 second-round pick (No. 60), 2024 fourth-round pick (No. 128) and 2025 first-round pick
Now let’s get to why this deal does and does not make sense for both teams.
Why it works for the Bills
Buscaglia: The case for making a huge move up the board makes it pretty easy for Beane to rationalize. The Bills traded away their best receiver in Diggs and have only Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel and Mack Hollins atop the depth chart. While they like Shakir and Samuel, both players have yet to be anything better than a team’s third-best receiver. And despite several moves to refresh the roster by moving on from some big names of yesteryear while simultaneously creating ample cap space for the 2025 offseason, Beane remains committed to pushing forward to maximize the 2024 season.
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In fact, following the Diggs trade, Beane was borderline defiant when anything contrary to that was suggested, simply repeating there’s a long way to go until September. This receiver class, especially with the three top receivers — Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze — has a chance to be one of the best we’ve seen in recent memory.
The investment in a top-flight receiver via the draft would be a first for Beane, who has yet to select a wideout earlier than the fourth round since arriving in Buffalo after the 2017 NFL Draft — but that doesn’t mean he’s against it. The Bills strongly believe receiver is a premium position, which is why they traded for Diggs while Allen was on his rookie deal. Now with Allen’s contract ballooned, pairing him with a potential top-flight receiver on a cost-controlled rookie deal makes a ton of sense, especially with how much it costs for a top-tier receiver in today’s NFL. That way, with all their newly acquired cap space for 2025, they can spend it in more cost-effective ways on positions that aren’t cost prohibitive on the open market.
As for the cost of the trade-up, it becomes a lot easier to rationalize moving on from a 2025 first-round pick after acquiring the Minnesota Vikings’ 2025 second-round pick in the Diggs deal. With the Minnesota quarterback situation looking like it will either be Sam Darnold or a rookie, it makes it more likely the pick will land near the top of the round.
Some will argue for the Bills to use one of the future picks to trade for a receiver like Tee Higgins or Brandon Aiyuk, but both would immediately demand a new contract near the top of the market. The Bills would be vanquishing both the valuable pick and the 2025 cap flexibility they just received. And in doing this deal with the Giants, New York would keep that potential star receiver out of their conference while Beane helps his best friend Schoen get the draft capital he could need to get a quarterback in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Why it works for the Giants
Carroll: Let’s be clear. If the Giants love a QB available in this draft and have the ability to go get him, they absolutely should. However, if that player isn’t available, then the Giants should seriously consider this kind of trade. For one, they’re low on ammunition, entering the draft with just six picks. Though it’d be difficult to give up a premium pick and the chance to land a star player, the Giants have so many needs to address that stockpiling more premium assets makes a lot of sense.
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Perhaps the biggest reason why starts at quarterback. Adding another first-round pick to their arsenal puts the Giants in position to target a quarterback in the 2025 NFL Draft. Now, early prognostications suggest that next year’s crop of QBs isn’t great, but it’s also way too early to know that for sure. Jayden Daniels wasn’t expected to be a top-five pick this time last year. Anthony Richardson wasn’t viewed as that type of player ahead of the 2022 season. The same could be said for Joe Burrow before his sensational 2019 season at LSU. The list goes on.
And if Daniel Jones enjoys a bounce-back season, great. Now the Giants have two 2025 first-round picks to keep building out their roster with young talent.
Speaking of which, the added capital in this year’s draft could help the Giants find another starting cornerback — either at No. 28 or with one of their two second-round picks — and add depth to the defensive line after the departures of Leonard Williams and A’Shawn Robinson. Even after fortifying the offensive line in free agency, adding quality young depth wouldn’t be the worst idea given everything that happened last season.
And remember, this is supposed to be a deep wide receiver class. So while the Giants won’t be securing one of the top three players at the position, The Athletic’s Dane Brugler ranked 10 receivers in the top 50 of his final top 100. That means they could still find a high-caliber player at No. 28 or even No. 47 to help fortify their WR corps.
Downsides for the Bills
Buscaglia: While it would be a massive move up the board for a new No. 1 receiver to replace Diggs, it would involve something Beane has never done — trading a future first-round pick for an unknown asset. He didn’t even have to move a future pick to move up and take Allen in 2018. The only time he’s dealt one was for the proven veteran Diggs, which helped take Allen’s career to new heights. Even though Beane is known for aggressive draft day trades, he also loves his draft picks, so there could be some sticker shock in the cost of doing business to go get what they hope becomes their long-term top receiving threat to pair with Allen, potentially through the rest of Allen’s career.
On top of that, making that kind of move up the board would leave the Bills without a single selection on Day 2. Not having a third-round pick turns their wait from No. 6 to No. 133 into a long one, potentially missing out on a future starting player. It really all depends on how excited Beane is about the player he’d be selecting and how they project him into the future. If they don’t believe the receiver they’d select at No. 6 has a chance to become a superstar on the level of Julio Jones, they may not be willing to make that big of a jump.
Downsides for the Giants
Carroll: It’s fair to wonder if the Giants brass is even in a position to entertain such a deal.
A huge move down the board might make more sense for a GM/coach with more job security than a duo entering a critical third season after a dismal second year at the helm. Giants co-owner John Mara recently expressed faith in Daboll and Schoen but also made no assurances about their futures. Can they really give up the potential of drafting a difference-maker at No. 6 when they need to improve on last year’s 6-11 record?
As Mara said at the NFL owners’ meetings, signs of progress will be seen in the win column. A top receiver like Harrison, Odunze or Nabers could make an immediate and dramatic impact on the Giants’ outlook in 2024. The allure of such a player could prove too tough to pass up.
(Photo of Joe Schoen and Brandon Beane: Bill Wippert / Buffalo Bills)
