China trade: ‘resilient’ April exports beat expectations on tailwinds of global recovery
Elsewhere, the April trade surplus stood at US$72.4 billion, compared with US$58.6 billion in March.
The country’s economy is being supported by trade due to the rise of overseas economies, especially the US
“China’s exports still show resilience after excluding base factors,” said Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie Capital.
“The country’s economy is being supported by trade due to the rise of overseas economies, especially the US.”
The favourable export performance is expected to persist for at least the next six months, he added.
Rising global demand is providing a boost to trade-led economic growth, as Beijing looks to exports as a hedge against domestic headwinds, including the ongoing property slump and sluggish household spending.
“On a positive note, China enjoys the tailwinds of the global tech cycle recovery and plays a leading role in products related to green transition. This means that exports will be a solid driver for economic growth in 2024,” said Gary Ng, a senior economist at Natixis Hong Kong.
“However, the big swing in year-on-year import growth is largely driven by a base effect and the amount is smaller than in March.
“The challenge of boosting consumer and corporate confidence will remain the most immediate problem.”
China’s trade would still face geopolitical uncertainties, but this would not alter the overall volume of its exports, Hu said.
Instead, the change would manifest in the destinations of its exports, with a notable uptick observed last year in shipments to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and Mexico, Hu added.
“In fact, the final destination for most of these products is still the US,” Hu said.
China’s exports tumbled last year as overseas demand slumped, and it saw its first overall growth decline in seven years, as shipments fell by 4.6 per cent.
International bodies, however, expect a more promising trade outlook both for China and the world this year.
The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said last week that the growth of global trade in goods and services could expand to 2.3 per cent this year and 3.3 per cent in 2025 from last year’s 1 per cent growth.
“[Chinese] exports will pick up again as global demand recovers, and an increasing number of Chinese goods become competitive in international markets,” it said.
The International Monetary Fund estimated last month that growth in global trade volumes would grow at a rate of 3 per cent in 2024 and 3.3 per cent in 2025.
More to follow …
