Only 3 trading sessions this week for markets. Here’s what will keep Dalal Street buzzing

This week markets will have just three trading sessions. Equity markets will remain closed on Monday for Holi and on Friday for Good Friday.

India’s Current Account and External Debt data, Government Budget Value, and F&O monthly expiry along with Goods Trade Balance, and unemployment data in the US are major events that will keep the markets buzzing.

Economic data: The upcoming week is likely to remain volatile as the March Future and options F&O series will expire on March 28 and traders will be adjusting their positions ahead of the new series.

On the economy data front, investors will be eyeing Current Account and External Debt data to be out on March 28. Government Budget Value, Foreign Exchange Reserves and Infrastructure Output data going to be released during the week. Infrastructure output in India increased 3.6% year-on-year in January 2024, the smallest gain since October 2022, following an upwardly revised 4.9% rise in the previous month.

US market data: Traders will first be eyeing Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, on March 25, Redbook, CB Consumer Confidence, Dallas Fed Services Index on March 26, Initial Jobless Claims, Chicago PMI, Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count on March 28, Core PCE Price Index, Personal Income, Personal Spending, Goods Trade Balance on March 29.

Market outlook: Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research at HDFC Securities says Nifty ended on positive note for the third consecutive session on March 22. At close, Nifty was up 0.39% or 84.8 points at 22096.8. While Asian stocks were mixed on Friday and European stocks reacted from record highs but were still on path for a ninth straight week of gains, the longest winning streak since 2012, as investors turned more confident in the economy and looked forward to upcoming interest-rate cuts.

Jasani added, a series of central bank meetings during the week indicated that a turn towards looser policy is on track. US equity funds suffered redemptions of about $22 billion in the week through Wednesday — the biggest since December 2022, according to a note from Bank of America Corp., citing EPFR Global data.

The technical outlook for Nifty: Nifty formed a large bull candle on March 22 and ended the week higher by 0.33%. On weekly charts it formed a high wave candle. Whether the current upward momentum continues after the looming long weekend will be interesting to track. “Nifty could rise towards 22297 and later 22527 over the coming few sessions while 21860-21875 band could offer support,” Jasani said.

Bank Nifty: According to Rupak De, Senior Technical & Derivative Analyst at LKP Securities, The Bank Nifty index saw robust buying from lower levels but struggled to breach the resistance at 47,000. Immediate support lies at 46,600-46,500, and as long as the index holds above this level, the outlook remains bullish. “A breakthrough above 47,000 is anticipated to trigger sharp short-covering rallies towards the 48,000 mark”, De said.